Skip to main content

The End of Making Money From Money ?

I had a young visitor from New York the other day. He was exploring openings and opportunities in investment banking. Back there, he told me, everyone was talking about India. And having landed here, he was struck by the exuberance and yet, couldn't help contrast the potholes against Mumbai's property prices. I thought as we spoke, that financial services, often the business of making money from money, depended on such exuberance. And give or take a few blimps, we've had it in abundance. But how long would it would last in the present form ?

In the past I have often pitied banks and their seemingly vulnerable savings accounts. After all, I am bombarded with a continuous stream of messages telling me how to make more money from money. "Take your money out of your bank, DON'T leave it lying there," is the essential text hammered consistently. Invest in stocks, bonds, mutual funds, gold, silver, property and of course, clever insurance schemes.

A Vast, Global Industry

There is a vast, global industry which thrives on this way of life. It includes most of the financial markets, the really smart people (or are they ?) who work in them, financial media, communicators, independent advisors and government regulators who are always trying (I stress the word) to ensure that you, the saver, is not separated unjustly from your hard earned money.

The role of any financial market is to allocate capital and connect those of us craving to multiply our savings with those who want to multiply their wealth. Yes, in the process, keep a small portion aside for you as well. Actually, I do mean that genuinely. And yes, there is nothing stopping you from participating either. You should, if you think you can.

To return to my conversation with my visitor, it was two articles in the New York Times patched with some interesting stastics back home that got me thinking. All bear examination, inasmuch as they could tell you where opportunities could lie, versus not. To be fair, India is unlikely to face the same problems as the US economy, at least now.

"The Turnabout Is Striking"

The first, talks about small investors fleeing stock markets in the United States. Investors withdrew a staggering $33.12 billion it says and even quotes a Credit Suisse analyst (an integral component of that global community) saying "Small investors are losing their appetite for risk." And investors, as this article, will tell you, are selling on the way down as well on the way up again, presumably the smarter ones or with more guts.

Its the long-term trend that the NYT is pointing to.."One of the phenomena of the last several decades has been the rise of the individual investor. As Americans have become more responsible for their own retirement, they have poured money into stocks with such faith that half of the country’s households now own shares directly or through mutual funds, which are by far the most popular way Americans invest in stocks." "So," says the NYT article, "The turnabout is striking."

Now, lets look at the other article, also in the NYT, which speaks about property. This one argues that it (housing) in the United States will eventually recover from its great swoon. "But many real estate experts now believe that home ownership will never again yield rewards like those enjoyed in the second half of the 20th century, when houses not only provided shelter but also a plump nest egg."

Era Is Gone For Good ?

Moreover, says the NYT, "the wealth generated by housing in those decades, particularly on the coasts, did more than assure the owners a comfortable retirement. It powered the economy, paying for the education of children and grandchildren, keeping the cruise ships and golf courses full and the restaurants humming. More than likely, that era is gone for good."

Now I can pull quite a few data points which will show you that the Indian investing mania never reached American proportions so the question of the return journey does not arise. On the other hand, did the return journey begin long ago..? An interesting article by Sucheta Dalal suggest as much, at least in equities.

She argues that investor population has plummeted from a high of 20 million in 1992. She quotes figures shared in Parliament that show some 3 million investors traded in the National Stock Exchange's cash market between April-June 2010 but 90% of the investment came from only 192,000 investors !! Moreover, 50% of turnover comes from just 451 investors, of which 156 were proprietary traders.

Sold On Growth

This is not to argue that you can't make money in India. Of course you can. And many do, quite wisely. But as Sucheta's piece says and I infer - statistically, not everyone has much of a chance making money from money. So careful with the hype.

Property is another story. We need roofs over our heads and we buy houses for long term security, unlike stocks and other financial market instruments. But at current values, particularly in the metros, housing is plain unaffordable for most Indians. One reason (galloping real estate FDI) is provided in this Times of India article. There are other reasons as well. So some sort of reversal must happen. Soon.

Im still sold on the India growth story, allowing, of course, for frequent ups and downs. There is very real consumption happening in the country. And people's lives are improving for the better, across strata and across the country. And there is need for capital and capital allocation too. And the market discrepancies ? Well, market forces will take care of them. That's what I told my young visitor as well.

Comments

Woman At Work said…
Real Estate prices are unreal in Mumbai. And from what I read in WSJ, property prices in Mumbai will continue to soar. There is no bubble that will burst.. there is a bar thats being raised year on year, making affordable housing a dream. To come to my point, money can generate money in india, if you are investing in Mumbai real Estate! The returns are likely to be much higher than what you'd expect from equities.
Glad to see you back in action!
Hi W@W, would say the general feeling is not that a bubble would burst but a contraction could and perhaps should follow..there is no affordable housing in any metro, at least for any normal wage-earning citizen of this country..!
projenator said…
Also the mumbai real estate market is very shady with cartels and what have you. In fact I read an article in the ET a few weeks back how cartels were artificially jacking up prices. I used to work for Fannie Mae and I know a bit about real estate which helps me intelligently follow the real estate market. The Indian real estate market, especially the metros is extremely shady and unless you have political or muscle power, you rather stay away.

Specifically @Woman at work, if there is no bubble how come there was a 30% correction, on average in the mumbai and delhi real estate markets ?

In absence of any regulation, brokers and builders have a free run and most home buyers feel cheated the way they have been dealt. ET now and economic times has been coming out with such stories regularly, there is also an interesting video on youtube posted by a NRI homebuyer who bought a flat from Unitech, Gugaon in 2007.
projenator said…
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/features/financial-times/Why-we-need-the-real-estate-regulator-in-India/articleshow/6536274.cms?curpg=2

I think this confirms partly what I said in my previous post. The article on cartelisation in the Mumbai real estate can be found on ET website if searched.
projenator said…
Just a quick comment on GROWTH, growth is important for improving living standards and getting people out of poverty provided growth is managed well which happens less often than one would like. Mismanaged unregulated growth will lead us to another America where the middle is being gradually and systematically wiped out as the following article illustrates through an extensive video presentation by Liz Warren.

http://www.declineoftheempire.com/2010/07/wiping-out-the-middle-class.html

Popular posts from this blog

Why Did Aamir Khan Swing For Narmada ?

He is not the first celebrity to do so. But he’s turned out to be the most radical, activist Bollywood filmstar by far, all in day's time..at least as far as my memory serves me.

The reasons why he would back the Narmada Bachao Aandolan
could be several. Ranging from the fact that a cousin associated with the movement influenced him to the fact that he was in and out of the Kutch for six months whilst the shooting of Lagaan.

Lets assume all that contributed significantly. Still, why join the protestors in the manner he did ? Why become a face for the movement ? Knowing well there could be consequences that may not be the most desirable.

Dammed If You Do..

To his credit, he did not buckle to the mob frenzy that followed his signing up a few days ago. Instead, he calmly called the attention of all and sundry and asked if these were really the politicians and political parties they wanted to be led by ? He even accused the political parties of trying to bully him.

There are those who de…

Jan Lokpal Bill Movement: Lessons For India's Middle & Ruling Classes

`Supercop' Kiran Bedi learnt the hard way (or so we hope) how not to hold fort when she resorted to somewhat unusual theatrics to drive home a point about elected representatives. She was on stage as Gandhian Anna Hazare fasted to get the Indian Government to agree to pass the Jan LokPal Bill, a strong anti-corruption bill. His fast ended on 28 August 2011, 12 days after it started.

The fast (and the strategy thereof) has attracted kudos and criticism alike. The critics call the fast and the accompanying protests blackmail. The supporters say politicians are not known to respond to the usual greet, meet and review process. As they have not in the past. Moreover, the country has lived with unprecedented levels of corruption for decades and across all walks of life. And cannot tolerate it any longer. Extreme conditions call for extreme responses. Both sides however agree that the issue of corruption in public life must be addressed, with some urgency.

I see it a little differently.…

The Zone

I was watching Indian captain MS Dhoni's eyes when he hit the sixer that catapulted India to victory at the ICC Cricket World Cup 2011 on Saturday night. Only someone with numbing focus and meditative concentration, oblivious to the utter mayhem and cacophony all around, can play a shot like that. It was the definitive, you-guys-can-take-this stroke from a cricketer wanting to leave a permanent stamp on the game.

To be fair, many such definitive shots have been played, match winning and otherwise. But it was one of the few I would categorize as belonging to The Zone. Spiritual expert Jaya Row who once defined the Zone to me. "Its your ability to disconnect totally from the world outside and be in total control of your mind and body for that moment," she had told me.

I have always wondered about the role of spirituality (secular) in our lives. Ms Row, a Vedanta expert, defined ita appropriately. "Think of Sachin Tendulkar when he is facing a bowler. Look at his face…